Climate change and warming temperatures are causing sea level to rise, on average, by 4.5 mm per year. This sea-level rise is caused by thermal expansion of the ocean, by melting glaciers, and by melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
Te Ao Hurihuri: Te Ao Hou aims to understand the impact of unavoidable global sea-level rise (50cm by 2100). We also know, however, that for New Zealand, up to 1.2m of sea-level rise is possible by 2100 in areas where land subsidence amplifies climate driven sea-level rise. Furthermore, unabated carbon emissions could cause up to 2.5m of sea-level rise for parts of Aotearoa by the end of the century, especially if rapid melting of Antarctica’s ice sheets occurs.
Te Ao Hurihuri: Te Ao Hou will provide actionable knowledge and tools to help people adapt to unavoidable change. It will also identify coastal impacts and hazards that we may have to adapt to if we cannot curb carbon emissions. Timely knowledge of the most harmful but avoidable impacts of sea-level rise will help incentivise our drive to net zero 2050, while providing tangible solutions if we fail. Achieving climate resilient pathways for coastal infrastructure and communities in Aotearoa requires the integration of effective adaptation and emissions mitigation.
Te Ao Hurihuri: Te Ao Hou has six research themes. To effectively adapt we must:
- Learn more about how much the polar ice sheets will melt under our warming climate to reduce the uncertainty about future sea-level rise.
- Improve the granularity and resolution of what we know about vertical land movement, so Aotearoa New Zealand can better manage impacts on a variety of scales – from individual buildings to entire regions.
- Understand the effect of earthquake driven vertical land movement on local sea-level rise.
- Establish a cohesive long-term adaptation platform with accessible, nationally consistent, toolkits and advice to support decision-making and coastal management (Naish et al, Policy Quarterly).
- Develop tools and methods to identify and assess multiple and evolving sea-level rise driven coastal hazards, allowing Aotearoa New Zealand to better manage related risk.
- Establish strong engagement with coastal communities to facilitate effective communication, reduce climate anxiety, and enable fair and equitable response.