The new data and outputs from our other research aims will be incorporated into state-of-the-art visualisation tools so that New Zealanders can easily access the new data and ‘see’ the likely change that will occur along our coastal regions.
The new probabilistic sea level projections for the coast of Aotearoa New Zealand will incorporate global and regional climate drivers and local effects. Local effects will include estimates of the impact of vertical land movements events, extreme events, sedimentation and coastal erosion, groundwater inundation and salinisation and other coastal hazards. These coastal projections will be extended inland to quantify and visualise shifts in the coastline at a national scale.
Integrate ice sheet and VLM outputs into sea level projections framework for a coastal strip
We will use the Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level to update SLR projections produced through NZ SeaRise. We will do this using new interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) combined with Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) data with improved spatiotemporal resolution.
Develop methodology to incorporate VLM into sea level projections at high spatial resolution for the low lying coastal zone
Develop and utilise statistical models to downscale and interpolate sea level projections and confidence intervals across the low-lying coastal zone (<15 m above sea level) and incorporate with high resolution digital elevation model data to provide projections of future shorelines around the 15,000+ kms of Aotearoa under the range of shared socioeconomic pathways to 2300.
Create and test a range of visualisation tools to help communicate rate, magnitude, and impact of SLR for Aotearoa at national and regional scales
We will build on visualisation tools established in NZ SeaRise on the Takiwā platform. Takiwā mapping enables large amounts of complex data to be combined, analysed and presented in visually powerful ways. This will incorporate spatially extensive VLM data and new maps of shoreline change. We will establish novel 3D visualisations using gaming software. We will connect visualisations with communities for feedback and development guidance.
Our Team
Tasman Gillies (Ngāi Tahu, Ngāti Kahungunu) and Mike Taitoko (Ngāti Maniapoto) lead our visualisation work through Takiwā and will develop the next generation of SLR tools. Bob Kopp, Rutgers University, designed the gold standard Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS), a software package intended to support assessments of global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level rise used by the IPCC. He will train data scientist Mario Krapp, Earth Sciences New Zealand (formally GNS Science).