Workshop: Challenges for adaptation

Two people stand in front of banners for Our Changing Coast and the NZ SeaRise map
Our Changing Coast booth at Adaptation Futures.

Decision makers need actionable climate risk knowledge based on robust science to inform their decisions to reduce exposure of coastal communities, long-lived assets and infrastructure in order to avoid maladaptation, and promote climate resilient development. 

Te Herenga Waka – Victoria University hosted this Masterclass at AF2025 to set the scene for their post conference workshop on “SLR adaptation action – managed retreat, coastal cities and settlements. Te Herenga Waka, Victoria University of Wellington has been at the forefront of SLR research, tools for projections, hazard and risk assessment, dynamic and adaptive decision-making approaches and policy responses with Aotearoa New Zealand  and global partners.   

Sea-level rise (SLR) poses a unique challenge for adaptation action. It is ongoing for centuries, non-linear, and potentially irreversible if the Paris climate target is missed. SLR poses imminent threats with 40-50cm of global mean SLR unavoidable, yet uncertainties abound from high impact low probability (HiLL) events such as rapid Antarctic ice sheet loss and potential tipping points in the cryosphere and oceans being breached, which create deep uncertainty. These together with emissions scenario uncertainty and local factors such as differing rates of land subsidence pose longer-term uncertainties, dynamically changing risk profiles, with compounding and cascading effects for exposed and vulnerable communities. Understanding the unique characteristics that SLR pose for adaptation is a necessary first step in accelerating action towards equitable and resilient adaptation.  

Presentations were made by:  

  1. Tim Naish (VUW) – global and local context of sea-level change
  1. Richard levy  (Earth Science NZ) – the importance of vertical land movements and their incorporation in local sea-level projections
  1. Rob Bell (BellAdapt) – incorporating NZSeaRise projections into the national coastal hazards guidance (national perspective)
  1. Tom Simons-Smith (CCC)– The application  of NZSeaRise projections to post-Earthquake Christchurch in coastal adaptation planning (regional perspective)

The session ended with a facilitated discussion led by Judy Lawrence.